Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 12.910951 15.098602 17.493886 20.304462 23.504910 27.028598 31.194392
2024-12-22 9.691591 12.576574 16.023503 20.417292 25.838118 32.273989 40.456946
2024-12-29 7.600024 10.785719 14.884796 20.482599 27.855105 37.152033 49.668080
2025-01-05 5.891291 9.068797 13.438744 19.780489 28.619524 40.354098 56.929956
2025-01-12 4.861705 8.044404 12.685261 19.784021 30.167710 44.562323 65.724521
2025-01-19 4.070989 7.202561 12.020926 19.750918 31.556643 48.559920 74.445808
2025-01-26 3.688775 6.916938 12.118933 20.809335 34.572029 55.033770 87.094987
2025-02-02 3.326687 6.593204 12.092079 21.632959 37.258211 61.176061 99.648016
2025-02-09 3.041946 6.349926 12.149412 22.568660 40.162540 67.812859 113.347933
2025-02-16 2.649438 5.839299 11.672684 22.535268 41.458796 72.002002 123.505172
2025-02-23 2.230564 5.202171 10.878440 21.842942 41.557048 74.240001 130.668444
2025-03-02 1.876264 4.629169 10.118665 21.108743 41.482246 76.138313 137.337141
2025-03-09 1.663630 4.325070 9.846845 21.268942 43.037810 80.933744 149.215525
2025-03-16 1.457902 3.998511 9.485873 21.215861 44.197006 85.129589 160.359844
2025-03-23 1.285562 3.715958 9.174887 21.219916 45.449902 89.556418 172.154562
2025-03-30 1.079704 3.308383 8.534815 20.472646 45.183297 91.229472 179.206200
2025-04-06 0.955494 3.083377 8.266450 20.467743 46.356094 95.576671 191.244560
2025-04-13 0.845424 2.872684 7.999470 20.430454 47.448681 99.826637 203.326024
2025-04-20 0.811700 2.870502 8.229372 21.519502 50.936847 108.808644 224.590675
2025-04-27 0.766730 2.826376 8.349420 22.367269 53.978179 117.098733 244.976262
2025-05-04 0.730322 2.801093 8.513145 23.330601 57.333220 126.181225 267.301272
2025-05-11 0.652497 2.628017 8.269156 23.296150 58.515129 131.030344 281.763701
2025-05-18 0.557362 2.374329 7.770907 22.583235 58.129855 132.698648 290.129142